Will We Get a Green Brexit?
Many years ago I failed Latin A Level. My friend Tim and I sat slumbering at the back of a set full of classicists who all - except for us - went on to Oxbridge and have had various and glittering careers. I still remember my sullen admiration at watching those big brains at work. How could they make this stuff seem so easy? I was reminded of this yesterday, when I went to a conference on Green Brexit, organised by Prosperity UK. Sorry to use the B word - please do read on. Prosperity UK seems like a very good idea. Remainer or Leaver, their idea is that we should all move on and work together in a post Brexit world to make the best of things. To this end they organised a Conference on "Green Brexit", which featured a number of wildly impressive brains who would have more than graced my Classics Upper Sixth. It was absolutely fascinating. Many of the great and good from the world I inhabit were there. Michael Gove, Sir Roger Scruton, Tony Juniper (WWT), Matt Ridley, Helen Browning (Soil Association), Minette Batters (NFU), Tim Bonner (Countryside Alliance), Lord Glasman, Lord Hill, David Babbs (38 Degrees), Michael Liebreich (Bloomberg), the Goldsmith brothers, Dame Fiona Reynolds, Dieter Helm (Natural Capital Committee), George Freeman MP, Tim Breitmeyer (CLA), Alistair Driver (Rewilding UK). There are some people here whose views I generally don't get on with, and some with whose I do. My particular interest was farmland. On which they were all - pretty much - and somewhat to my surprise - singing off similar hymn sheets. There were, certainly, philosophical differences, but for such a Catholic Church there was a remarkable degree of agreement. Everyone agreed the the Common Agricultural Policy has been hopeless, and that waving it goodbye will present us with some great opportunities. Everyone agreed that we needed to embrace the idea of using public money to pay for things that actually benefit the public - "ecosystem services".This could include planting trees to reduce flooding, increase biodiversity and sequester carbon, seeding wildflower meadows, establishing wetlands, rotating crops to help soils, rewilding... A Green Brexit could include paying farmers not to use excessive fertilisers, which run off and pollute water courses. It could include managing landscapes for visitors. It might even go as far as including animal welfare. Some of these payments might even come from the private sector. You would think people might pay to stop their homes being flooded, for example. Most people seemed to agree that this approach had to be based around the idea of Natural Capital. This places a notional value on natural assets - a complicated and somewhat arbitrary set of calculations. The idea is that the cost to the environment of food production or development is compensated for, and that in the round we keep or add to the sum of natural capital, not diminish it. Natural Capital does hit the buffers in certain regards; how do you value ancient woodland or a medieval wildflower meadow? An area of unequivocal agreement was that we need - as Michael Gove put it - "the highest environmental and ethical standards". These would encapsulate some basic principles - such as polluter pays and the precautionary principle, for example - which require a regulator of some kind and legislative teeth. Guess what - in a room full of environmentalists there was ne'er a dissenting voice. This all sounded pretty Utopian. It was enormously exciting to hear policy makers and movers and shakers talking in these terms. Bright Blue, the Conservative think tank, have already produced a detailed policy paper. There are, however, obvious issues involved in translating these clever ideas into reality. In theory the public will end up a massive winner from this kind of reform. The current system encourages waste and inefficiency. We're largely just paying people to own farmland. Paying farmers to help stop flooding, improve water and soil quality, improve animal welfare, etc etc are all things that benefit the public. The problem is the electorate won't understand "ecosystem services", as they don't translate into cheaper food prices in the shops. In order for super duper new environmental controls to work, our trading partners importing food here would have to sign up to equivalent standards. Here's where the politics comes in. One of the Brexit dividends was supposed to be cheaper food. Dropping import tariffs should lead to cheaper imported food, to the cost of our own farmers. According to the brains, it seems unlikely. There will of course be individual examples where prices fall (like sugar), but overall the effect will be negligible compared to, for example, currency movements. We will not see cheaper food unless we relax regulation relating to things like animal welfare and pesticide use. There's a real danger of a race to the bottom, featuring chlorinated chickens, beef stuffed with antibiotics, pigs in farrowing crates, cereals treated with neonicotinoids.... the list is endless. What is going to happen to food production here if we start paying farmers to take tracts of land out of agricultural production? These will be more or less relatively unproductive, but output overall will still fall, even with technologically and ecologically driven improvements in yields in the areas which remain under plough and cow. This would mean higher dependence on food imports. Would we be happy with that? If output falls, what effect is this going to have on food prices? Particularly in combination with higher environmental standards,it's difficult to see them going down. This might seem like a great idea in a room full of economists, environmentalists and farmers. It's difficult to see it going down so well in the House of Commons. And how can any of the reforms of a Green Brexit not bring extra cost to administer? They will need regulation, guidance and monitoring. A system based on natural capital will be fiendishly difficult and complicated, as opposed to one which essentially consisted of lots of measuring. Who's going to do this* and how much will it cost? This expense is - the economists will argue - a small price to pay for a much more cost effective and beneficial system. Will it seem that way to the politicians promising less red tape and more transparency after Brexit? The electorate is wedded to its own idea of what constitutes an attractive and natural landscape. Ecologists might shudder at the denuded hillsides of the Lakes and the Yorkshire Dales, but tourists flock to them. Farmers have farmed these areas the same way for generations. They will all resist change. To my mind these Green Brexit reforms should also be accompanied by reducing farmland's tax breaks. Much of our farmland is owned by folk who are just using it as a way of avoiding IHT. Reduce this kind of tax break and farmland prices would fall to more sustainable levels, on which farmers could make commercial yields. They will also care more about qualifying for subsidies by doing the right thing for the environment. Government intervention on this kind of scale in the countryside does not have a good track record. There always seem to be unintended consequences. Biogas seemed a great idea until we realised the consequences of growing tonnes and tonnes of maize - a terrible crop ecologically- to produce it. There were many other discussions during the day, covering a variety of topics. They were remarkably amicable when they veered into areas where there was genuine and heartfelt disagreement. It's going to take a lot more - and potentially less pleasant - labour to persuade politicians and the public to get behind some of the ideas behind Green Brexit, even if they are promoted by the big brains. *Natural England, the obvious choice, has been gutted over the last few years.